Tag Archives: occupational projections

The Best Career Decisions Use Local Information

A local college recently announced a new program to train occupational therapy assistants, citing 41% national growth through 2022 and a persistent labor shortage.

As a job seeker how could you decide whether to invest over $45,000 of your tuition dollars in this program?

Enter the Long-Term Occupational Projections, 2012–2022, for New York State and its 10 labor market regions. These data were just released by the New York State Department of Labor. They tell you the demand for about 700 different detailed occupations, both statewide and in your local area.

Click here to download the chart.

How to Read the Chart

1. Identify your occupational title, which is sometimes easier said than done. Suppose you are looking for information on occupational therapy assistants. That one is not too difficult because there is actually an occupational title named “occupational therapy assistants” (try not to confuse it with occupational therapists or occupational therapy aides). However, you will find that the list is not sorted alphabetically by occupation. To find your title you will need to use Microsoft Excel’s Find function. If you still cannot find an occupation that matches the job title you had in mind, try searching for it on www.onetcodeconnector.org.

OTA1

2. Check out the Employment numbers. The first tab on the chart is for all of New York State. Note that there are projected to be 2,570 occupational therapy assistant jobs statewide in 2022, 520 more than there were in 2012. That is a growth rate of 25.4% over 10 years—pretty impressive, but not quite as high as the nationwide growth rate cited in our first paragraph. Of course the most important piece of information on this chart is the Total number of Annual Average Openings—just 100 per year. Half of the openings are due to new job growth, half due to replacements for people leaving the occupation.

3. Take a look at the wages. Remember that if you have no experience in the occupation, you will likely start near the entry level. If you can find a job after graduation, $39,720 is probably a high enough annual salary to start paying back those inevitable student loans.

OTA2

What About Your Local Labor Market?

Information for the Finger Lakes Region, which includes Monroe County plus eight other surrounding counties, can be found in the fourth tab on the chart.

OTA3

Notice the Total number of Annual Average Openings in the Finger Lakes—zero! (There are actually at least three average annual openings, but rounded to the nearest 10, that equals zero). Thirty or more annual openings would be a less risky number for the Finger Lakes. Some high-demand occupations have 100 or more annual openings.

Entry-level wages for occupational therapy assistants in the Finger Lakes are also a bit lower than statewide—$36,440 annually.

Can You Trust These Numbers?

The Long-Term Occupational Projections are usually fairly consistent with numbers of actual job openings. But for several reasons they are not accurate in every case. So you should always verify them by doing a real-time search on job search web sites.

I performed a search on www.indeed.com for occupational therapy assistants within 50 miles of Rochester, NY, expecting to find only one, or none. To my surprise I found at least four unduplicated, full-time, regular jobs posted. I also found a number of part-time, per diem, or travel jobs. So this was one of those instances where the long-term projections underestimated the number of openings.

Supply and Demand

We cannot discuss demand without also looking at supply. In the labor market demand represents the number of job openings. Supply represents the number of qualified job seekers competing for those jobs. For example, until that new occupational therapy assistant program starts pumping out graduates, we may very well have a labor shortage—even with a relatively small number of annual openings. However, if the college starts graduating 15 occupational therapy assistants per year, we may end up with an oversupply. Graduates of the program would then have to be open to working a travel job or relocating. The long-term projections show that more than half of the statewide openings are likely to be downstate.

So Should You Pursue That Occupation or Not?

When in doubt, get some advice. College counselors can give you an idea of the market for the jobs they prepare you for. But keep in mind that their perspective is limited to the educational programs offered by their school. And admissions counselors at some colleges may advise you with the motive of filling a recruitment quota.

Your local career center is a great place to get a second opinion. If in Rochester, come see us at one of the RochesterWorks! Career Centers. Elsewhere in New York State, find your local career center at http://labor.ny.gov/career-center-locator/.

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Where Are the Skilled Workers? — Part 4

New data released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics can help you find available talent with solid transferable skills. What does the report tell us?

Highlights of the Occupational Projections

The occupational projections cover 818 different occupational titles. If you are seeking talent to fill open positions, you should be interested in two pieces of information about these occupations—growth (or decline) and replacement needs.

Occupational Growth

Fast-growing occupations face stiff competition for talent. On the other hand, declining occupations may be a source of skilled workers with transferable skills.

Replacement Needs

Replacement data reflect the need to fill positions due to employee turnover, when a worker changes occupations or leaves the workforce. High replacement numbers tend to ease the effect of occupational decline. For example, postal service mail carriers is the occupation with the second highest decline, 79,200 jobs. However, the need for 102,700 replacement workers makes it an occupation for which we can expect to see continued recruitment.

Job Title SOC Code Decline, 2012–2022 (Thousands) Replacement Needs, 2012–2022 (Thousands)
Sewing machine operators 51-6031 -41.7 7.7
Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers 11-9013 -179.9 150.2
Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators 43-5053 -38.6 9.4
Data entry keyers 43-9021 -54.2 26.3
Word processors and typists 43-9022 -26.2 3.7
Postal service clerks 43-5051 -21.3 10.2
Computer operators 43-9011 -12.7 7.2
Door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers 41-9091 -14.2 9.3
Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 51-4072 -19.2 15.1
Textile knitting and weaving machine setters, operators, and tenders 51-6063 -5.4 3.5
Fallers 45-4021 -2.9 1
Textile cutting machine setters, operators, and tenders 51-6062 -4.2 2.5
Textile winding, twisting, and drawing out machine setters, operators, and tenders 51-6064 -5.6 4.4
Reservation and transportation ticket agents and travel clerks 43-4181 -19.5 18.5
Textile bleaching and dyeing machine operators and tenders 51-6061 -2.7 1.8

Key Strategies for Talent Acquisition

If you are having difficulty finding workers with the exact skill set that you need, you should consider recruiting workers who are leaving declining occupations. Some of them are good candidates because they have experience in your industry. Others have both the “soft skills” that you are seeking and the aptitude to learn the job.

The down side to this strategy is that the biggest declines in job numbers tend to be concentrated in relatively low-tech functions in just a few job families. So you will not find a large variety of these workers, and you will have to teach them the technical side of your business.

Here is a table that shows recruiting needs that are most likely to be filled by this strategy.

Recruiting Need

Strategy

Health Care Occupations are among those with the most projected job growth.
Recruit from declining occupations for which customer service skills are common. Examples include door-to-door sales workers, ticket agents, and travel clerks.
There are large numbers of job openings projected for accounting and secretarial jobs—particularly medical secretaries.
Try recruiting from declining occupations for which data management skills are important. Examples include any of the six entries on the declining occupations table (above) whose SOC code starts with the “43” prefix.
Due to the aging of the workforce in the skilled trades, there is a significant need for replacement workers.
You might have success with workers from any of the “hands-on” jobs that are in decline. Examples include farming and production occupations.
According to the Manufacturing Institute, as many as 600,000 manufacturing jobs are going unfilled. The growth is largely in Advanced Manufacturing.
Six of the entries on the declining occupations table (above) are production job titles. Individuals with experience in these jobs already have basic manufacturing industry knowledge. Many of them would be good candidates for Advanced Manufacturing jobs.

If you missed the first three articles in this series, click here to access the other blogs, which include three additional recruiting strategies for businesses.

Job Projections to 2022 Troubling

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their Occupational Employment Projections, 2012–2022, today. Here is my initial reaction. I try to be optimistic about economic data—and still believe that there are tremendous career opportunities for job seekers who understand where they fit in the labor market—but I am disappointed by these numbers.

Comparing the new projections to the old ones (2010–2020), we are seeing a significant decline in projected growth. According to the old forecast, we were to see 164 million jobs in 2020. The new projection calls for only 161 million jobs two whole years later. That is about 2.5 million jobs too few for the projected size of the labor force. Although that is much better than the difference between workers and jobs of nearly 10 million in 2012, wouldn’t it be better if there was a job for every worker?

The outlook for 19 of the 22 major job families has been downgraded with the largest downward revisions in Office & Administrative Support and Sales & Related Occupations. The bright spot in the revisions is in Management Occupations, for which end-year (2022) employment has been adjusted upward by 20,800 (3.4%).

My understanding (from a non-economist’s point of view) of the reason for the changes is that the economy in general is recovering from the Great Recession far more slowly than expected. Thus forecasted job growth has been revised downward.

6 Fastest-Growing Occupations for the New Year: Don’t Believe Them!

Tomorrow (Thursday, 12/19/13) the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release their Employment Projections for 2012–2022. Then you will see the writers begin to write about the hottest, best, or fastest-growing occupations for the next decade. Among the jobs that are hyped, you will see some really bad choices. Perhaps the list will include biomedical engineers with a 50+ percent growth rate. (No, I do not have an advance copy of the new projections; I am just guessing based on the old projections).

Why They May Be Bad Job Choices

Over the weekend a friend of mine told his teenage son that he would double his allowance if he would shovel the snow from the driveway. Why did his son refuse the offer? The dad does not even give him an allowance, and the young man realized that two times zero is still zero.

The same is true of some of the “fast-growing” occupations. If you take an occupation with a very small number of job openings and increase it by 50%, you are still going to end up with a very small number of openings. The 2010–2020 projections showed an annual average of 1,310 openings for biomedical engineers. That may seem like a large number, but when you divide it among the 50 states and the District of Columbia, it is far from being a “hot” job. For example, New York State’s share of the annual openings is only 30.

When a Decline Is Better Than an Increase

You would actually be better off pursuing a career as a postal service worker. With a double-digit decline, no one is going to place postal workers on their list of best jobs. However, the projections to 2020 showed an average of 12,630 yearly openings—nearly 10 times as many as biomedical engineers.

So when you see those articles about the fastest-growing occupations for the New Year, make sure that the writers are not trying to sell you on two times zero.

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